CTR Prediction
A Content Spy packaging tool that estimates click-psychology strength for content you have not published yet — hook, title, optional thumbnail description, optional creator history — then returns a 0–100 CTR Prediction Score. 6 AI credits.
Overview
CTR Prediction sits in Content Spy under Packaging & Click Optimization. It is built for unpublished packaging: you describe the hook and title (and optionally the thumbnail and channel history). Open Go Viral → Content Spy (creator account, desktop). Each run costs 6 AI credits. Compare mode supports 2–3 videos: cost = number of videos × 6 (for example 3 × 6 = 18).
How to run
- 1Sign in as a creator. Open Go Viral → Content Spy (desktop), or open the CTR Prediction form from the tool.
- 2Required: content type (Shorts vs long-form), hook / concept, and planned title. Optional: thumbnail description and a short creator-history note.
- 3From Content Spy with a loaded public or unlisted video, the tool can prefill title, description-as-hook, and channel name. Private videos are not supported.
- 4Run it (6 credits). Credits deduct only after a successful result. Read the overall score band, five sub-scores, then Strengths, Weaknesses, Risks, Improvements, and Platform Fit.
What it uses
Unlike CTR Audit, this engine does not pull views, likes, or a thumbnail vision pass. It scores the packaging you describe.
- Content type: YouTube Shorts (short-form) or long-form video
- Hook / concept — the opening promise (curiosity gap, surprise, outcome)
- Planned video title
Optional — but they change the score
- Thumbnail description: face, contrast, overlay text, colors. If omitted, Thumbnail is capped at 55 and flagged in Detected Issues.
- Creator history: channel and audience fit. If omitted or “not specified”, Creator History is set to 50 (neutral) and called out in the breakdown.
Scoring framework
Five integer sub-scores (0–100) combine into the overall CTR Prediction Score. Weights below are mandatory in the model — they are not a separate calculator in the UI.
Hook
35%- Curiosity gap, surprise, contrarian angle, concrete outcome
- Emotional intensity in the opening promise
- Penalty for generic filler (“hey guys”, no tension)
Title
20%- Specificity: numbers, timeframes, a clear benefit
- Cognitive tension (secret, nobody, mistake) and a front-loaded hook
- Penalty for SEO-only wording, vagueness, emoji/caps spam, or mismatch vs hook
Thumbnail
30%- Facial emotion, high-contrast / tension framing
- Minimal overlay (about 1–4 words), focal clarity vs clutter
- If not provided: cap at 55 (incomplete packaging)
Platform fit
5%- Shorts: instant hook, kinetic / shock / curiosity fit
- Long-form: narrative or outcome promise that earns the click
Creator history
10%- Audience fit and credibility only if history is substantive
- Otherwise 50 with an explicit “neutral track-record” note
What you get
The result is formatted for the Content Spy results panel.
- CTR Prediction Score: XX / 100 plus a band: HIGH (90–100), HEALTHY / TESTABLE (70–89), WEAK / RISKY (50–69), LOW (below 50).
- Score breakdown: Hook, Title, Thumbnail, Platform Fit, Creator History — each 0–100 with a one-line why.
- Strengths, Weaknesses, Risks, Improvements, and a Platform Fit Analysis (Shorts vs long-form vs the packaging).
Case study
Scenario
A productivity creator has a title and hook for an unpublished “I tested 5 focus apps for 30 days” video. They skip the thumbnail description to see how incomplete packaging is scored before designing the image.
Context (available inputs)
- Content type: long-form
- Hook / concept + planned title (required)
- Thumbnail description: not provided → Thumbnail capped at 55
- Creator history: not specified → History = 50 (neutral)
- Cost: 6 AI credits
Tool result
Score breakdown
0–100
- Hook84/100
- Title76/100
- Thumbnail55/100
- Platform Fit80/100
- Creator History50/100
CTR Prediction Score
70 / 100
HEALTHY / TESTABLE — strong hook and title, but incomplete packaging: missing thumbnail description caps that pillar at 55.
Strengths
- 30-day outcome loop in the hook.
- Title names a concrete test and a count.
- Long-form choice matches a series payoff.
Weaknesses
- No thumbnail description — incomplete packaging.
- Creator history left blank (neutral 50).
Improvements
- Add a 1–4 word overlay + shocked face description.
- Front-load the result in the first four title words.
- Note typical CTR or niche if you have channel history.
Takeaways
- This scores unpublished packaging you describe — not Studio CTR on a live video.
- Skip the thumbnail and that 30% pillar cannot go above 55. Fill it before you treat the overall as “testable.”
- Use CTR Audit on a published (or unlisted) competitor when you need metadata + vision, not a form.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this my real YouTube CTR?
No. CTR Prediction is a 0–100 click-psychology score for packaging you have not published (or that you describe). It does not read YouTube Analytics and does not invent a CTR percentage.
How is this different from CTR Audit?
CTR Audit scores a published video’s packaging from metadata, spoken hook, thumbnail vision, and authority metrics. CTR Prediction scores hook + title (+ optional thumbnail text and history) for content that is not live yet.
How is this different from Click Probability in Content Lab?
Click Probability is a Content Lab score on a loaded video’s title and thumbnail. CTR Prediction is the Content Spy pre-publish form: you type the packaging, including Shorts vs long-form and optional history.
What if I skip thumbnail or history?
The run still completes. Missing thumbnail caps Thumbnail at 55 and flags it. Missing history sets Creator History to 50 (neutral) and says so in the breakdown.
How much does one run cost?
6 AI credits per prediction. Compare mode multiplies by the number of videos (2–3).
Next Steps
Score packaging strength on a published or unlisted video (metadata + thumbnail vision).
Compare your planned title and thumbnail against a benchmark video.
See all 10 competitive intelligence tools, including Compare mode.
How credits work, free balance, and pack pricing.